Uncertainty Principle

Ok, so this blog is not about Heisenberg and quantum mechanics, but the content does apply to my general thoughts on leadership: 'The more preciscely one of these qantities is known the less precise becomes our knowledge of the other.'

When the company closed the office and said--'you can work from home.' The end was near, but I hopped it was a little further off than what turned out. Returning from a short vacation the "boss" (he hated to be labled with that word) asked we meet for breakfast, and there he dropped the bomb. Laid off. I saw it coming, but took no action to prepare, like a deer in headlights the brain recognized what was coming, and took no action.

Now faced with the reality, I worry. My age will hinder, the lack of definable achievements the last five years, (it is difficult to monitize what I was dicincented to do), getting past the gatekeeper to someone to whom I can sell myself. I reflect; what could I have done differently, shouldn't I have been a stronger change leader, was it possible, did I accept the status quo and abdicate too much control to superiors and circumstance? I look; not many jobs in the payments biz. Should I set out my shingle as a consultant? Consulting on what; cards, management, bank ops, mortgages, LOS, strategy?

Heisenberg suggested; '. . .it is impossible to to specify simultaneously the values of position and momentum or energy and time for a particle in a quantized system.' I am not a particle physist so I have no idea what a "quantized system" is, but translating this into the ether in which we live I would suggest the theory applies to what we know of our decisions and their consequences. What supports the theory is "we" have created a system of uncertainty, and it is unlikely to change. Thus we must embrace this reality, figure out its rules (if any) and move within it. Much of what I learned about leadership in B school is based on an old reality, or at least a reality where uncertainty was mitigated by, somewhat, a limited amount of stability.

This instability is partially the result of the Tax Reform Acts of 1981 and 1982 which lowered the the capital gains tax rate and subsequently changed tax on gains to ordinary income. In addition depreciation on assets could be accelerated. The creation of the leveraged buyout was incentivized by these changes and created a different approach to the planning in the executive offices and the board of directors. Also about this time, rules for minority stock holders changed allowing this class of owner to bring stock purchase offers to the board even if the minority member(s) are not on the board of directors. The cumulated effect is quarterly earnings mean more than long term planning.

So you see, the more we understand one, the less we understand another.